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让数学建模为抗击“非典”献计策
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- 出版日期：
- 2003-07-02
- 正文快照：
- 本报讯在学校第一批科技攻关项目中，有一个项目十分引人注目。这就是由省政协委员、九三学社浙大委员会副主委、理学院刘祥官教授担任课题组长，包括农学院祝增荣教授、医学院朱益民副教授等11位老师和博士生、硕士生参加的项目：（SARS流行规律的数学模型解析与防控策略优化》。该课题研究的是国际流行病学中十分令人关注一个方面。半个月来课题组进行了多次学术交流，研究、筛选有关的数学模型。他们从流行病学、生态学和运筹学、控制论角度对SARS的发生、发展、衰退的规律进行探索与计算。从国夕凤科学快报》上收集最新的香港、美国、英国和WHO专家的研究文章，进行分析借鉴。他佣从WHO网站和国家卫生部网站上采集包括中国大陆、广东、北京、华北、香港、台湾以及全球的SARS确诊病例、疑似病例、治愈病例、病死病例等方面数据，以唯物辩证法观点，对SARS病毒与人类组成的动力学系统，通过建立数学模型函数，研究SARS疫情发展的全程规律。绘制了几十幅数学模型图表，反映SARS在不同地区的发展规律。在研究中既考虑了疫情数据的随机特性，同时又把握时间-数量的发展特征。从而建立了能够反映SARS疫情烈度、暴发时间与累计确诊病例的数量发展极限之间关系的模型。并且从社会学与心理学角度，对疫情衰退的时间进程进行了预测，通过数学模型计算出不同疫区确诊病例下降到10例以下、5例以下的预期时间等数据，从而为领导和管理部门的科学决策、数量估计和制定时间进展计划提供了量化依据。到目前为止已完成2篇疫情发展分析的数学模型研究报告。
- 期次：
- 第124期
- 版次：
- 2
- 来源：
- 浙江大学报
FreeMarker template error (DEBUG mode; use RETHROW in production!):
The following has evaluated to null or missing:
==> showFlag [in template "home/review/reviewCnki.ftl" at line 144, column 6]
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Tip: If the failing expression is known to legally refer to something that's sometimes null or missing, either specify a default value like myOptionalVar!myDefault, or use <#if myOptionalVar??>when-present<#else>when-missing. (These only cover the last step of the expression; to cover the whole expression, use parenthesis: (myOptionalVar.foo)!myDefault, (myOptionalVar.foo)??
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FTL stack trace ("~" means nesting-related):
- Failed at: #if showFlag [in template "home/review/reviewCnki.ftl" at line 144, column 1]
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Java stack trace (for programmers):
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freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException: [... Exception message was already printed; see it above ...]
at freemarker.core.InvalidReferenceException.getInstance(InvalidReferenceException.java:134)
at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.newDesciptionBuilder(UnexpectedTypeException.java:85)
at freemarker.core.UnexpectedTypeException.(UnexpectedTypeException.java:48)
at freemarker.core.NonBooleanException.(NonBooleanException.java:47)
at freemarker.core.Expression.modelToBoolean(Expression.java:179)
at freemarker.core.Expression.evalToBoolean(Expression.java:162)
at freemarker.core.Expression.evalToBoolean(Expression.java:147)
at freemarker.core.ConditionalBlock.accept(ConditionalBlock.java:48)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:325)
at freemarker.core.Environment.visit(Environment.java:331)
at freemarker.core.Environment.process(Environment.java:304)
at freemarker.template.Template.process(Template.java:382)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.freemarker.FreeMarkerView.processTemplate(FreeMarkerView.java:396)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.freemarker.FreeMarkerView.doRender(FreeMarkerView.java:309)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.freemarker.FreeMarkerView.renderMergedTemplateModel(FreeMarkerView.java:257)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.AbstractTemplateView.renderMergedOutputModel(AbstractTemplateView.java:165)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.view.AbstractView.render(AbstractView.java:314)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.render(DispatcherServlet.java:1325)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.processDispatchResult(DispatcherServlet.java:1069)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doDispatch(DispatcherServlet.java:1008)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.DispatcherServlet.doService(DispatcherServlet.java:925)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.processRequest(FrameworkServlet.java:978)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.doGet(FrameworkServlet.java:870)
at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:626)
at org.springframework.web.servlet.FrameworkServlet.service(FrameworkServlet.java:855)
at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:733)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:227)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:53)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.apache.catalina.filters.HttpHeaderSecurityFilter.doFilter(HttpHeaderSecurityFilter.java:126)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:61)
at cnki.tpi.filter.ShiroSsoFilter.doFilter(ShiroSsoFilter.java:70)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.ProxiedFilterChain.doFilter(ProxiedFilterChain.java:66)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.executeChain(AbstractShiroFilter.java:449)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter$1.call(AbstractShiroFilter.java:365)
at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.doCall(SubjectCallable.java:90)
at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.SubjectCallable.call(SubjectCallable.java:83)
at org.apache.shiro.subject.support.DelegatingSubject.execute(DelegatingSubject.java:383)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.AbstractShiroFilter.doFilterInternal(AbstractShiroFilter.java:362)
at org.apache.shiro.web.servlet.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:125)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at cnki.tpi.filter.SimpleCORSFilter.doFilter(SimpleCORSFilter.java:28)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.jasig.cas.client.util.HttpServletRequestWrapperFilter.doFilter(HttpServletRequestWrapperFilter.java:75)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.jasig.cas.client.validation.AbstractTicketValidationFilter.doFilter(AbstractTicketValidationFilter.java:201)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at cnki.tpi.filter.SimpleCORSFilter.doFilter(SimpleCORSFilter.java:28)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.springframework.web.filter.RequestContextFilter.doFilterInternal(RequestContextFilter.java:99)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.springframework.web.filter.HttpPutFormContentFilter.doFilterInternal(HttpPutFormContentFilter.java:109)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.springframework.web.filter.HiddenHttpMethodFilter.doFilterInternal(HiddenHttpMethodFilter.java:81)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.springframework.boot.web.servlet.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:115)
at org.springframework.boot.web.servlet.support.ErrorPageFilter.access$000(ErrorPageFilter.java:59)
at org.springframework.boot.web.servlet.support.ErrorPageFilter$1.doFilterInternal(ErrorPageFilter.java:90)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.springframework.boot.web.servlet.support.ErrorPageFilter.doFilter(ErrorPageFilter.java:108)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.springframework.web.filter.CharacterEncodingFilter.doFilterInternal(CharacterEncodingFilter.java:200)
at org.springframework.web.filter.OncePerRequestFilter.doFilter(OncePerRequestFilter.java:107)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:189)
at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:162)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:202)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:97)
at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:542)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:143)
at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:92)
at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:687)
at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:78)
at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:357)
at org.apache.coyote.http11.Http11Processor.service(Http11Processor.java:374)
at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProcessorLight.process(AbstractProcessorLight.java:65)
at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$ConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:893)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.NioEndpoint$SocketProcessor.doRun(NioEndpoint.java:1707)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.SocketProcessorBase.run(SocketProcessorBase.java:49)
at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1149)
at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:624)
at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61)
at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:748)
